MORE GOOD POLLING NEWS – AT 8:02 A.M. ET:  The election is two and a half months away, and Republicans seem, at this stage at least, to be consolidating their strength.  This morning's Gallup report confirms the trend:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's latest update on 2010 congressional voting preferences finds 50% of registered voters saying they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district, and 43% for the Democratic candidate, if the elections were held today. Republicans have led in each of the past three weeks, and their current 50% vote share and seven percentage-point lead represent their best showings thus far in 2010.

And...

Republicans typically turn out to vote in greater numbers than Democrats do. So their current seven-point advantage among all registered voters could represent the lower bound of the margin they could expect to win by (in the national two-party vote) if the elections were held today.

And...

A strong Republican showing this fall would be consistent with Gallup's recent research indicating that the party of a president with approval ratings below 50% tends to suffer heavy seat losses in midterm elections. The Republicans' larger lead on the latest generic ballot coincides with a new low weekly job approval average of 44% for President Obama.

Finally...

Also, in August to date, the vote among independent registered voters has averaged 47% Republican to 34% Democratic, a 13-point GOP advantage. That compares with an average 10-point Republican advantage prior to this month.

Now that's the way to start a day.

Of course, we all know that the only poll that counts is the one on a certain Tuesday in November.  Republicans should be concentrating on, among other things, a spectacular get-out-the-vote drive, an area where Democrats have traditionally excelled.  (Look, in Chicago the Dems get some of their voters from cemeteries.  How hard is that?) 

And I still maintain that press bias, which cannot be measured in polls, will play a role in this midterm, although perhaps not as decisively as in 2008.  This election isn't in the bag for the GOP.  The campaign is really just starting.

August 17, 2010